LECWeek 4

Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - LEC

Natus Vincere Natus Vincere1-1
VS
Team Heretics Team Heretics
Aug 17, 15:00·Bo3
Series Predictions
Natus Vincere
Team Heretics
FastTree · free model
Natus Vincere74.2% Team Heretics25.8%
Head-to-Head & Form
Natus Vincere
Elo Rating 1550
Tournament Record 1-1 (4-5)
Overall Record 43W - 48L (47.3%)
Current Streak 3L
H2H Win Rate 72.0%
VS
Team Heretics
Elo Rating 1237
Tournament Record –
Overall Record 34W - 79L (30.1%)
Current Streak 6L
H2H Win Rate 28.0%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
1
Elo Rating
Natus Vincere +314 Elo
Impact 24.1%
Natus Vincere
2
Early GameEarly GameA combined early-game signal blending gold, CS, and XP differentials at the 15-minute mark.
Natus Vincere +422
Natus Vincere leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward Team Heretics.
Impact 22.4%
Counts for Team Heretics The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
3
Expected Win RateExpected Win RateThe model's expected win probability based on Elo difference alone.
Natus Vincere +35.9% expected WR
Impact 11.2%
Natus Vincere
4
Opponent Avg Elo
Natus Vincere +0.172
Impact 9.8%
Natus Vincere
5
Team StrengthTeam StrengthA combined team strength signal blending overall win rate, KDA, and gold per minute.
Natus Vincere +758
Impact 9.3%
Natus Vincere
6
Elo CompositeElo CompositeA combined Elo signal that blends raw Elo, expected win rate, and the interaction between them.
Natus Vincere +166
Impact 8.7%
Natus Vincere
7
Vision ControlVision ControlA combined vision signal blending vision score, vision wards per minute, and vision efficiency.
Natus Vincere +465
Impact 5%
Natus Vincere
8
Recent Win RateRecent Win RateWin rate over the last 5 matches - the most direct measure of current form, faster-reacting than season-long stats.
Natus Vincere +40% WR
Natus Vincere leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward Team Heretics.
Impact 3.4%
Counts for Team Heretics The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
9
Upset RateUpset RateHow often this team wins as the Elo underdog - captures clutch factor / ability to beat stronger teams.
Natus Vincere +9.2%
Impact 2.4%
Natus Vincere
10
Schedule StrengthSchedule StrengthThe average Elo of opponents this team has faced. A 60% win rate against strong opponents is more impressive than against weak ones.
Natus Vincere +0.172
Impact 1.7%
Natus Vincere
Scouting Report
Natus Vincere BLUE
Higher rated overall
Stronger win record (47%)
Cleaner teamfighting (better KDA)
Better gold generation
Better vision control
Team Heretics RED
Well-rounded profile