Weekly Model Reports

Transparent, timestamped accuracy tracking for every prediction Riftcast makes.

FastTree
Series accuracy 68.4% 264 / 386
Game accuracy 70.1% 317 / 452
LightGBM
Series accuracy 69.4% 256 / 369
Game accuracy 70.6% 320 / 453
PCA Sweep
Series accuracy 70.3% 274 / 390
Game accuracy 72.8% 334 / 459
Consensus
Series accuracy 70.1% 265 / 378
Game accuracy 72.6% 332 / 457

Aggregated from 13 weekly reports.

Jul 13 — Jul 19, 2026 42 evaluated series
FastTree Series 68% Games 59%LightGBM Series 73% Games 59%PCA Sweep Series 74% Games 57%Consensus Series 72% Games 59%
Jul 6 — Jul 12, 2026 38 evaluated series
FastTree Series 51% Games 59%LightGBM Series 59% Games 55%PCA Sweep Series 57% Games 57%Consensus Series 53% Games 55%
Jun 29 — Jul 5, 2026 35 evaluated series
FastTree Series 57% Games 75%LightGBM Series 54% Games 82%PCA Sweep Series 58% Games 83%Consensus Series 58% Games 77%
Jun 22 — Jun 28, 2026 2 evaluated series
FastTree Series 100% Games 100%LightGBM Series 100% Games 100%PCA Sweep Series 100% Games 100%Consensus Series 100% Games 100%
Jun 15 — Jun 21, 2026 3 evaluated series
FastTree Series 0% Games 33%LightGBM Series 0% Games 40%PCA Sweep Series 0% Games 43%Consensus Series 0% Games 33%
Jun 8 — Jun 14, 2026 50 evaluated series
FastTree Series 67% Games 60%LightGBM Series 71% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 70% Games 67%Consensus Series 70% Games 70%
Jun 1 — Jun 7, 2026 27 evaluated series
FastTree Series 65% Games 63%LightGBM Series 64% Games 60%PCA Sweep Series 64% Games 66%Consensus Series 64% Games 64%
May 25 — May 31, 2026 43 evaluated series
FastTree Series 74% Games 74%LightGBM Series 72% Games 71%PCA Sweep Series 76% Games 77%Consensus Series 74% Games 71%
May 18 — May 24, 2026 45 evaluated series
FastTree Series 73% Games 73%LightGBM Series 71% Games 75%PCA Sweep Series 71% Games 73%Consensus Series 70% Games 77%
May 11 — May 17, 2026 25 evaluated series
FastTree Series 79% Games 72%LightGBM Series 76% Games 73%PCA Sweep Series 76% Games 69%Consensus Series 79% Games 75%
May 4 — May 10, 2026 27 evaluated series
FastTree Series 73% Games 70%LightGBM Series 82% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 78% Games 71%Consensus Series 80% Games 74%
Apr 27 — May 3, 2026 33 evaluated series
FastTree Series 76% Games 76%LightGBM Series 76% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 77% Games 80%Consensus Series 77% Games 78%
Apr 20 — Apr 26, 2026 42 evaluated series
FastTree Series 73% Games 75%LightGBM Series 69% Games 80%PCA Sweep Series 75% Games 84%Consensus Series 77% Games 83%

Accuracy by league

All-time series winner accuracy per model, aggregated from every settled prediction. Leagues with only a few series can swing wildly — read small samples with care.

League Series FastTree LightGBM PCA Sweep Consensus
LPL 7366% 44/6759% 40/6863% 44/7060% 42/70
LCK 7174% 48/6578% 51/6568% 46/6875% 47/63
Prime League 6365% 39/6073% 44/6064% 39/6167% 40/60
LEC 5479% 41/5270% 32/4675% 39/5279% 37/47
LES 4388% 38/4387% 34/3988% 37/4290% 37/41
LCS 4181% 29/3683% 30/3678% 29/3784% 32/38
Esports World Cup 4054% 21/3950% 17/3455% 22/4054% 20/37
EMEA Masters 3267% 20/3070% 21/3066% 19/2970% 19/27
LFL 3252% 16/3161% 17/2862% 18/2962% 18/29
LJL 3160% 18/3062% 18/2969% 20/2967% 18/27
CD 2668% 17/2565% 15/2362% 15/2467% 16/24
LRS 2250% 10/2060% 12/2057% 12/2155% 11/20

Closing line value

Whether the market moved toward our picks between prediction time and the closing line — the most reliable evidence of real edge. Every measurable pick counts, so this converges faster than ROI. Only picks with a market snapshot before the pick and at least one later capture are included.

22% picks beat the close
+2.1% average CLV
829 measurable picks
LightGBM 25% +2.9% 208
PCA Sweep 24% +2.3% 207
FastTree 21% +1.5% 207
Consensus 21% +1.6% 207