Weekly Model Reports

Transparent, timestamped accuracy tracking for every prediction Riftcast makes.

FastTree
Series accuracy 66.3% 514 / 775
Game accuracy 67.9% 688 / 1014
LightGBM
Series accuracy 66.6% 525 / 788
Game accuracy 68.6% 699 / 1019
PCA Sweep
Series accuracy 68.7% 541 / 788
Game accuracy 69.1% 724 / 1047
Consensus
Series accuracy 68.4% 524 / 766
Game accuracy 70.0% 717 / 1024

Aggregated from 24 weekly reports.

Oct 19–Oct 25, 2026 21 evaluated series
FastTree Series 47% Games 50%LightGBM Series 47% Games 45%PCA Sweep Series 44% Games 54%Consensus Series 44% Games 45%
Oct 12–Oct 18, 2026 8 evaluated series
FastTree Series 86% Games 44%LightGBM Series 75% Games 57%PCA Sweep Series 88% Games 57%Consensus Series 86% Games 57%
Oct 5–Oct 11, 2026 13 evaluated series
FastTree Series 88% Games 0%LightGBM Series 70% Games 0%PCA Sweep Series 75% Games 0%Consensus Series 78% Games 0%
Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 60 evaluated series
FastTree Series 56% Games 69%LightGBM Series 53% Games 67%PCA Sweep Series 64% Games 69%Consensus Series 63% Games 71%
Sep 21–Sep 27, 2026 79 evaluated series
FastTree Series 62% Games 64%LightGBM Series 67% Games 62%PCA Sweep Series 73% Games 64%Consensus Series 65% Games 65%
Sep 14–Sep 20, 2026 20 evaluated series
FastTree Series 64% Games 73%LightGBM Series 62% Games 69%PCA Sweep Series 53% Games 68%Consensus Series 62% Games 68%
Sep 7–Sep 13, 2026 37 evaluated series
FastTree Series 60% Games 59%LightGBM Series 68% Games 62%PCA Sweep Series 55% Games 61%Consensus Series 63% Games 64%
Aug 31–Sep 6, 2026 54 evaluated series
FastTree Series 70% Games 72%LightGBM Series 77% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 79% Games 72%Consensus Series 76% Games 72%
Aug 24–Aug 30, 2026 54 evaluated series
FastTree Series 67% Games 60%LightGBM Series 64% Games 65%PCA Sweep Series 68% Games 60%Consensus Series 69% Games 64%
Aug 17–Aug 23, 2026 88 evaluated series
FastTree Series 64% Games 68%LightGBM Series 60% Games 71%PCA Sweep Series 64% Games 69%Consensus Series 66% Games 72%
Aug 10–Aug 16, 2026 93 evaluated series
FastTree Series 69% Games 71%LightGBM Series 67% Games 69%PCA Sweep Series 70% Games 71%Consensus Series 70% Games 71%
Jul 13–Jul 19, 2026 42 evaluated series
FastTree Series 68% Games 59%LightGBM Series 73% Games 59%PCA Sweep Series 74% Games 57%Consensus Series 72% Games 59%
Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026 38 evaluated series
FastTree Series 51% Games 59%LightGBM Series 59% Games 55%PCA Sweep Series 57% Games 57%Consensus Series 53% Games 55%
Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026 35 evaluated series
FastTree Series 57% Games 75%LightGBM Series 54% Games 82%PCA Sweep Series 58% Games 83%Consensus Series 58% Games 77%
Jun 22–Jun 28, 2026 2 evaluated series
FastTree Series 100% Games 100%LightGBM Series 100% Games 100%PCA Sweep Series 100% Games 100%Consensus Series 100% Games 100%
Jun 15–Jun 21, 2026 3 evaluated series
FastTree Series 0% Games 33%LightGBM Series 0% Games 40%PCA Sweep Series 0% Games 43%Consensus Series 0% Games 33%
Jun 8–Jun 14, 2026 50 evaluated series
FastTree Series 67% Games 60%LightGBM Series 71% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 70% Games 67%Consensus Series 70% Games 70%
Jun 1–Jun 7, 2026 27 evaluated series
FastTree Series 65% Games 63%LightGBM Series 64% Games 60%PCA Sweep Series 64% Games 66%Consensus Series 64% Games 64%
May 25–May 31, 2026 43 evaluated series
FastTree Series 74% Games 74%LightGBM Series 72% Games 71%PCA Sweep Series 76% Games 77%Consensus Series 74% Games 71%
May 18–May 24, 2026 45 evaluated series
FastTree Series 73% Games 73%LightGBM Series 71% Games 75%PCA Sweep Series 71% Games 73%Consensus Series 70% Games 77%

Accuracy by league

All-time series winner accuracy per model, aggregated from every settled prediction. Leagues with only a few series can swing wildly - read small samples with care.

League Series FastTree LightGBM PCA Sweep Consensus
EMEA Masters 14463% 78/12365% 79/12168% 78/11467% 74/111
LPL 9670% 60/8666% 59/8964% 58/9066% 57/86
Prime League 6869% 44/6473% 47/6467% 44/6668% 43/63
LCK 6661% 36/5966% 38/5866% 37/5667% 38/57
CD 5874% 39/5370% 38/5467% 35/5273% 37/51
LEC 5873% 36/4971% 36/5171% 34/4875% 36/48
LFL 5457% 29/5162% 29/4764% 28/4464% 28/44
LCK CL 5062% 24/3958% 22/3863% 27/4363% 26/41
LCS 4776% 31/4179% 33/4281% 34/4279% 30/38
CBLOL 4581% 30/3771% 27/3874% 29/3978% 31/40
LES 3882% 28/3481% 29/3677% 27/3579% 27/34
Worlds 3645% 14/3153% 17/3250% 14/2852% 17/33

Closing line value

Whether the market moved toward our picks between prediction time and the closing line - the most reliable evidence of real edge. Every measurable pick counts, so this converges faster than ROI. Only picks with a market snapshot before the pick and at least one later capture are included.

21% picks beat the close
+0.9% average CLV
1,485 measurable picks
LightGBM 22% +1.1% 372
PCA Sweep 21% +0.9% 371
Consensus 20% +0.8% 371
FastTree 20% +0.8% 371