Weekly Model Reports

Transparent, timestamped accuracy tracking for every prediction Riftcast makes.

FastTree
Series accuracy 67.6% 422 / 624
Game accuracy 68.4% 611 / 893
LightGBM
Series accuracy 68.0% 428 / 629
Game accuracy 69.4% 627 / 904
PCA Sweep
Series accuracy 69.3% 442 / 638
Game accuracy 69.9% 647 / 926
Consensus
Series accuracy 69.6% 431 / 619
Game accuracy 70.9% 642 / 906

Aggregated from 18 weekly reports.

Sep 7–Sep 13, 2026 37 evaluated series
FastTree Series 60% Games 59%LightGBM Series 68% Games 62%PCA Sweep Series 55% Games 61%Consensus Series 63% Games 64%
Aug 31–Sep 6, 2026 54 evaluated series
FastTree Series 70% Games 72%LightGBM Series 77% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 79% Games 72%Consensus Series 76% Games 72%
Aug 24–Aug 30, 2026 54 evaluated series
FastTree Series 67% Games 60%LightGBM Series 64% Games 65%PCA Sweep Series 68% Games 60%Consensus Series 69% Games 64%
Aug 17–Aug 23, 2026 88 evaluated series
FastTree Series 64% Games 68%LightGBM Series 60% Games 71%PCA Sweep Series 64% Games 69%Consensus Series 66% Games 72%
Aug 10–Aug 16, 2026 93 evaluated series
FastTree Series 69% Games 71%LightGBM Series 67% Games 69%PCA Sweep Series 70% Games 71%Consensus Series 70% Games 71%
Jul 13–Jul 19, 2026 42 evaluated series
FastTree Series 68% Games 59%LightGBM Series 73% Games 59%PCA Sweep Series 74% Games 57%Consensus Series 72% Games 59%
Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026 38 evaluated series
FastTree Series 51% Games 59%LightGBM Series 59% Games 55%PCA Sweep Series 57% Games 57%Consensus Series 53% Games 55%
Jun 29–Jul 5, 2026 35 evaluated series
FastTree Series 57% Games 75%LightGBM Series 54% Games 82%PCA Sweep Series 58% Games 83%Consensus Series 58% Games 77%
Jun 22–Jun 28, 2026 2 evaluated series
FastTree Series 100% Games 100%LightGBM Series 100% Games 100%PCA Sweep Series 100% Games 100%Consensus Series 100% Games 100%
Jun 15–Jun 21, 2026 3 evaluated series
FastTree Series 0% Games 33%LightGBM Series 0% Games 40%PCA Sweep Series 0% Games 43%Consensus Series 0% Games 33%
Jun 8–Jun 14, 2026 50 evaluated series
FastTree Series 67% Games 60%LightGBM Series 71% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 70% Games 67%Consensus Series 70% Games 70%
Jun 1–Jun 7, 2026 27 evaluated series
FastTree Series 65% Games 63%LightGBM Series 64% Games 60%PCA Sweep Series 64% Games 66%Consensus Series 64% Games 64%
May 25–May 31, 2026 43 evaluated series
FastTree Series 74% Games 74%LightGBM Series 72% Games 71%PCA Sweep Series 76% Games 77%Consensus Series 74% Games 71%
May 18–May 24, 2026 45 evaluated series
FastTree Series 73% Games 73%LightGBM Series 71% Games 75%PCA Sweep Series 71% Games 73%Consensus Series 70% Games 77%
May 11–May 17, 2026 25 evaluated series
FastTree Series 79% Games 72%LightGBM Series 76% Games 73%PCA Sweep Series 76% Games 69%Consensus Series 79% Games 75%
May 4–May 10, 2026 27 evaluated series
FastTree Series 73% Games 70%LightGBM Series 82% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 78% Games 71%Consensus Series 80% Games 74%
Apr 27–May 3, 2026 33 evaluated series
FastTree Series 76% Games 76%LightGBM Series 76% Games 70%PCA Sweep Series 77% Games 80%Consensus Series 77% Games 78%
Apr 20–Apr 26, 2026 42 evaluated series
FastTree Series 73% Games 75%LightGBM Series 69% Games 80%PCA Sweep Series 75% Games 84%Consensus Series 77% Games 83%

Accuracy by league

All-time series winner accuracy per model, aggregated from every settled prediction. Leagues with only a few series can swing wildly - read small samples with care.

League Series FastTree LightGBM PCA Sweep Consensus
LPL 13469% 83/12164% 79/12465% 82/12765% 80/124
LCK 11565% 66/10271% 72/10265% 67/10369% 67/97
LEC 9878% 69/8971% 61/8674% 64/8778% 64/82
Prime League 7968% 50/7372% 54/7564% 48/7568% 49/72
LCS 6582% 47/5784% 49/5883% 49/5986% 50/58
LFL 6160% 35/5863% 34/5467% 34/5167% 34/51
LES 6086% 48/5684% 46/5582% 47/5785% 47/55
CD 5872% 38/5370% 37/5365% 34/5271% 36/51
LCK CL 4962% 24/3958% 22/3863% 27/4362% 25/40
CBLOL 4479% 31/3973% 27/3772% 29/4078% 31/40
Esports World Cup 4456% 24/4353% 20/3857% 25/4456% 23/41
NACL 3662% 20/3261% 20/3361% 20/3362% 20/32

Closing line value

Whether the market moved toward our picks between prediction time and the closing line - the most reliable evidence of real edge. Every measurable pick counts, so this converges faster than ROI. Only picks with a market snapshot before the pick and at least one later capture are included.

19% picks beat the close
+0.7% average CLV
1,221 measurable picks
LightGBM 20% +0.9% 306
PCA Sweep 19% +0.6% 305
Consensus 19% +0.6% 305
FastTree 19% +0.5% 305