RIFTCAST
Weekly model report
Jul 6 — Jul 12, 2026
Last completed week · all leagues
38 evaluated series
Weekly overview
Series and game accuracy across every prediction evaluated this week.
FastTree
Series accuracy
51.4%
18 / 35
Game accuracy
59.1%
13 / 22
LightGBM
Series accuracy
59.4%
19 / 32
Game accuracy
55.0%
11 / 20
PCA Sweep
Series accuracy
56.8%
21 / 37
Game accuracy
56.5%
13 / 23
Consensus
Series accuracy
52.9%
18 / 34
Game accuracy
54.5%
12 / 22
Per-market performance
Accuracy across every settled prediction, plus flat-stake ROI on the value engine's positive-EV picks — broken down by market.
FastTree
| Market | Accuracy | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | 51% 18/35 | -100% 2 picks |
| Game Winner | 59% 13/22 | -100% 1 pick |
| Series Handicap | 55% 12/22 | -71% 5 picks |
| Total Maps | 86% 19/22 | +8% 3 picks |
| Exact Score | 39% 9/23 | -52% 3 picks |
| Total | 57% 71/124 | -56% -7.9u |
LightGBM
| Market | Accuracy | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | 59% 19/32 | +36% 1 pick |
| Game Winner | 55% 11/20 | -- |
| Series Handicap | 55% 12/22 | -100% 1 pick |
| Total Maps | 77% 17/22 | -- |
| Exact Score | 39% 9/23 | +120% 1 pick |
| Total | 57% 68/119 | +19% +0.6u |
PCA Sweep
| Market | Accuracy | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | 57% 21/37 | +24% 3 picks |
| Game Winner | 57% 13/23 | -27% 8 picks |
| Series Handicap | 45% 10/22 | -32% 7 picks |
| Total Maps | 77% 17/22 | -75% 5 picks |
| Exact Score | 48% 11/23 | +93% 5 picks |
| Total | 57% 72/127 | -10% -2.8u |
Consensus
| Market | Accuracy | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | 53% 18/34 | -32% 2 picks |
| Game Winner | 55% 12/22 | -100% 2 picks |
| Series Handicap | 55% 12/22 | -71% 5 picks |
| Total Maps | 82% 18/22 | -- |
| Exact Score | 43% 10/23 | +21% 3 picks |
| Total | 57% 70/123 | -46% -5.6u |
Match results
38 completed series with evaluated predictions, grouped by match day.
MONDAY
July 6, 2026
2 SERIESMSI
03:00 UTC
BILIBILI GAMING
3
-
0
LYONFastTree4/4
SERIES
62%
62%
GAME 1
75%
75%
GAME 2
76%
76%
GAME 3
76%
76%
LightGBM4/4
SERIES
58%
58%
GAME 1
64%
64%
GAME 2
71%
71%
GAME 3
74%
74%
PCA Sweep4/4
SERIES
68%
68%
GAME 1
71%
71%
GAME 2
73%
73%
GAME 3
73%
73%
Consensus4/4
SERIES
66%
66%
GAME 1
70%
70%
GAME 2
73%
73%
GAME 3
74%
74%
MSI
08:00 UTC
T1
3
-
0
FURIAFastTree4/4
SERIES
63%
63%
GAME 1
68%
68%
GAME 2
68%
68%
GAME 3
58%
58%
LightGBM4/4
SERIES
72%
72%
GAME 1
76%
76%
GAME 2
78%
78%
GAME 3
76%
76%
PCA Sweep4/4
SERIES
76%
76%
GAME 1
79%
79%
GAME 2
79%
79%
GAME 3
75%
75%
Consensus4/4
SERIES
76%
76%
GAME 1
74%
74%
GAME 2
75%
75%
GAME 3
69%
69%
TUESDAY
July 7, 2026
5 SERIESPrime League
15:00 UTC
E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS
0
-
1
TeamOrangeGaming
FastTree--
SERIES
50%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
54%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
31%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
43%
Prime League
16:00 UTC
Eintracht Spandau
0
-
1
Unicorns of Love Sexy EditionFastTree0/1
SERIES
37%
37%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
40%
40%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
25%
25%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
33%
33%
Prime League
17:00 UTC
G2 NORD
1
-
0
Eintracht Frankfurt
FastTree1/1
SERIES
79%
79%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
73%
73%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
78%
78%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
77%
77%
Prime League
18:00 UTC
ROSSMANN Centaurs
0
-
1
Berlin International GamingFastTree1/1
SERIES
80%
80%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
67%
67%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
78%
78%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
77%
77%
Prime League
19:00 UTC
G2 NORD
1
-
0
Kaufland Hangry Knights
FastTree1/1
SERIES
79%
79%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
72%
72%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
75%
75%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
76%
76%
WEDNESDAY
July 8, 2026
10 SERIESMSI
03:00 UTC
LYON
3
-
0
Team Secret WhalesFastTree1/2
SERIES
41%
41%
GAME 1
49%
49%
GAME 2
51%
51%
GAME 3
63%
63%
LightGBM1/4
SERIES
43%
43%
GAME 1
35%
35%
GAME 2
40%
40%
GAME 3
61%
61%
PCA Sweep1/3
SERIES
50%
50%
GAME 1
45%
45%
GAME 2
47%
47%
GAME 3
57%
57%
Consensus1/3
SERIES
49%
49%
GAME 1
43%
43%
GAME 2
46%
46%
GAME 3
60%
60%
MSI
08:00 UTC
G2 Esports
3
-
1
T1FastTree1/5
SERIES
37%
37%
GAME 1
25%
25%
GAME 2
32%
32%
GAME 3
66%
66%
GAME 4
32%
32%
LightGBM0/2
SERIES
34%
34%
GAME 1
23%
23%
GAME 2
48%
48%
GAME 3
46%
46%
GAME 4
47%
47%
PCA Sweep1/5
SERIES
25%
25%
GAME 1
22%
22%
GAME 2
37%
37%
GAME 3
62%
62%
GAME 4
37%
37%
Consensus1/5
SERIES
32%
32%
GAME 1
23%
23%
GAME 2
39%
39%
GAME 3
58%
58%
GAME 4
39%
39%
Prime League
15:00 UTC
ROSSMANN Centaurs
0
-
1
E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTSFastTree1/1
SERIES
79%
79%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
72%
72%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
76%
76%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
77%
77%
Prime League
16:00 UTC
G2 NORD
0
-
1
Unicorns of Love Sexy EditionFastTree0/1
SERIES
37%
37%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
29%
29%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
25%
25%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
24%
24%
Prime League
17:00 UTC
Kaufland Hangry Knights
1
-
0
TeamOrangeGaming
FastTree0/1
SERIES
37%
LightGBM--
SERIES
48%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
33%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
48%
Prime League
18:00 UTC
VfB eSports
0
-
1
Eintracht SpandauFastTree1/1
SERIES
81%
81%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
73%
73%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
78%
78%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
78%
78%
Prime League
19:00 UTC
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
-
1
Berlin International GamingFastTree1/1
SERIES
81%
81%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
73%
73%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
76%
76%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
77%
77%
LRS
20:00 UTC
Seven Dark
0
-
2
Maze Gaming
FastTree1/1
SERIES
63%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
66%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
74%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
68%
LRS
23:00 UTC
Volticons
2
-
1
ZEN EsportsFastTree1/1
SERIES
56%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
66%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
68%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
66%
LRS
23:00 UTC
Malvinas Gaming
2
-
0
Golden Lions
FastTree0/1
SERIES
37%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
29%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
26%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
32%
THURSDAY
July 9, 2026
10 SERIESMSI
08:00 UTC
Hanwha Life Esports
1
-
3
BILIBILI GAMINGFastTree2/3
SERIES
50%
50%
GAME 1
52%
52%
GAME 2
64%
64%
GAME 3
36%
36%
GAME 4
59%
59%
LightGBM1/3
SERIES
46%
46%
GAME 1
49%
49%
GAME 2
64%
64%
GAME 3
38%
38%
GAME 4
47%
47%
PCA Sweep3/4
SERIES
50%
50%
GAME 1
55%
55%
GAME 2
61%
61%
GAME 3
39%
39%
GAME 4
59%
59%
Consensus2/3
SERIES
46%
46%
GAME 1
52%
52%
GAME 2
63%
63%
GAME 3
38%
38%
GAME 4
55%
55%
Prime League
15:00 UTC
Eintracht Spandau
0
-
1
E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTSFastTree0/1
SERIES
41%
41%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
42%
42%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
36%
36%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
47%
47%
Prime League
16:00 UTC
Kaufland Hangry Knights
1
-
0
Unicorns of Love Sexy EditionFastTree0/1
SERIES
37%
LightGBM--
SERIES
49%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
39%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
49%
Prime League
17:00 UTC
VfB eSports
0
-
1
ROSSMANN CentaursFastTree1/1
SERIES
58%
58%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
65%
65%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
68%
68%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
67%
67%
Prime League
18:00 UTC
TeamOrangeGaming
0
-
1
Berlin International GamingFastTree1/1
SERIES
63%
63%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
72%
72%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
76%
76%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
76%
76%
Prime League
19:00 UTC
VfB eSports
1
-
0
Eintracht Frankfurt
FastTree0/1
SERIES
38%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
34%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
32%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
33%
LRS
20:00 UTC
9z Globant
1
-
2
Volticons
FastTree0/1
SERIES
50%
LightGBM--
SERIES
49%
PCA Sweep--
SERIES
50%
Consensus--
SERIES
45%
LRS
20:00 UTC
Maze Gaming
2
-
0
ZEN EsportsFastTree0/1
SERIES
38%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
53%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
50%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
42%
LRS
23:00 UTC
Seven Dark
0
-
2
Golden Lions
FastTree1/1
SERIES
78%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
73%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
76%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
78%
LRS
23:00 UTC
Malvinas Gaming
0
-
2
Docta EsportsFastTree0/1
SERIES
38%
38%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
47%
47%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
37%
37%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
48%
48%
FRIDAY
July 10, 2026
5 SERIESMSI
08:00 UTC
LYON
2
-
0
G2 EsportsFastTree0/3
SERIES
38%
38%
GAME 1
40%
40%
GAME 2
40%
40%
GAME 3
53%
LightGBM0/2
SERIES
47%
47%
GAME 1
44%
44%
GAME 2
45%
45%
GAME 3
53%
PCA Sweep0/3
SERIES
33%
33%
GAME 1
42%
42%
GAME 2
42%
42%
GAME 3
54%
Consensus0/3
SERIES
48%
48%
GAME 1
42%
42%
GAME 2
43%
43%
GAME 3
51%
LRS
20:00 UTC
Malvinas Gaming
0
-
2
Seven Dark
FastTree0/1
SERIES
20%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
29%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
31%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
24%
LRS
20:00 UTC
Volticons
1
-
2
Golden Lions
FastTree0/1
SERIES
43%
LightGBM0/1
SERIES
43%
PCA Sweep0/1
SERIES
31%
Consensus0/1
SERIES
47%
LRS
23:00 UTC
9z Globant
2
-
0
ZEN EsportsFastTree1/1
SERIES
62%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
66%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
75%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
67%
LRS
23:00 UTC
Maze Gaming
2
-
0
Docta EsportsFastTree--
SERIES
50%
LightGBM--
SERIES
48%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
62%
Consensus--
SERIES
55%
SATURDAY
July 11, 2026
3 SERIESMSI
08:00 UTC
Hanwha Life Esports
3
-
2
LYONFastTree2/2
SERIES
58%
58%
GAME 1
42%
42%
GAME 2
51%
51%
GAME 3
49%
49%
GAME 4
49%
49%
LightGBM2/3
SERIES
51%
51%
GAME 1
51%
51%
GAME 2
57%
57%
GAME 3
42%
42%
GAME 4
42%
42%
PCA Sweep2/2
SERIES
63%
63%
GAME 1
44%
44%
GAME 2
47%
47%
GAME 3
53%
53%
GAME 4
53%
53%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
51%
51%
GAME 1
46%
46%
GAME 2
52%
52%
GAME 3
48%
48%
GAME 4
48%
48%
LRN
19:00 UTC
Polar Squad Esports
0
-
2
NCG Esports
FastTree1/1
SERIES
80%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
73%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
76%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
77%
LRN
22:00 UTC
LYON Academy
0
-
2
Fuego
FastTree1/1
SERIES
80%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
73%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
78%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
78%
SUNDAY
July 12, 2026
3 SERIESMSI
06:00 UTC
Hanwha Life Esports
3
-
2
BILIBILI GAMINGFastTree2/6
SERIES
43%
43%
GAME 1
33%
33%
GAME 2
66%
66%
GAME 3
62%
62%
GAME 4
33%
33%
GAME 5
34%
34%
LightGBM1/5
SERIES
43%
43%
GAME 1
35%
35%
GAME 2
58%
58%
GAME 3
54%
54%
GAME 4
33%
33%
GAME 5
44%
44%
PCA Sweep2/6
SERIES
31%
31%
GAME 1
34%
34%
GAME 2
65%
65%
GAME 3
61%
61%
GAME 4
30%
30%
GAME 5
33%
33%
Consensus2/6
SERIES
47%
47%
GAME 1
34%
34%
GAME 2
63%
63%
GAME 3
59%
59%
GAME 4
32%
32%
GAME 5
37%
37%
LRN
19:00 UTC
NCG Esports
0
-
2
Zeu5 Esports
FastTree0/1
SERIES
44%
LightGBM--
SERIES
52%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
61%
Consensus--
SERIES
55%
LRN
22:00 UTC
Polar Squad Esports
0
-
2
LYON Academy
FastTree1/1
SERIES
63%
LightGBM1/1
SERIES
67%
PCA Sweep1/1
SERIES
68%
Consensus1/1
SERIES
68%