Model accuracy
Every model, every market, every league, with the sample size behind each figure. Markets currently losing money are shown alongside the ones that are not, because a record that only reports its wins is not a record.
- 16,279matches indexed
- 453teams tracked
- 230tournaments
- 33,980predictions graded
How to read this page
Each cell shows the hit rate, the picks behind it as correct out of total, the return on a flat one-unit stake at the market price, and the Brier score. A dash means no graded picks in that combination, which is not the same as a zero.
Brier is the mean squared error of the stated probability against what actually happened, so lower is better and 0.250 is what saying 50% every time would score. Every figure in these tables, Brier included, is measured over the value picks we published, not over every probability the models produced - the published set is deliberately the high-edge end of it. Hit rate and return can disagree: a model can be right often at short prices and still lose money, or be right less often at generous prices and profit. Both are shown because neither is sufficient alone.
By market
All leagues combined, excluding those flagged low-accuracy for having too few graded results to be meaningful.
| Market | FastTree | LightGBM | PCA Sweep | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | 63%82/131+32.1%B 0.230 | 59%46/78+25.4%B 0.225 | 61%44/72+14.6%B 0.228 | 60%35/58+42.2%B 0.235 |
| Game Winner | 64%118/184+14.6%B 0.220 | 64%115/181+17.1%B 0.240 | 65%99/152+17.0%B 0.227 | 65%115/178+18.8%B 0.230 |
| Series Handicap Winner | 53%46/86+10.5%B 0.250 | 64%30/47+20.6%B 0.221 | 55%44/80+6.2%B 0.241 | 55%49/89+15.3%B 0.247 |
| Total Maps | 71%10/14+55.1%B 0.205 | 88%14/16+73.2%B 0.175 | 87%13/15+75.8%B 0.205 | 90%9/10+110.2%B 0.217 |
| Exact Score | 37%64/171+49.1%B 0.227 | 36%42/118+25.7%B 0.238 | 36%62/172+48.2%B 0.230 | 35%60/170+38.7%B 0.219 |
| Series Total Kills (Prelive) | 64%96/150+17.1%B 0.239 | 66%78/118+21.0%B 0.229 | 71%44/62+29.9%B 0.214 | 69%49/71+26.3%B 0.222 |
| Game Total Kills (Prelive) | 67%69/103+23.8%B 0.227 | 67%58/86+25.0%B 0.229 | 69%71/103+27.3%B 0.220 | 71%52/73+31.5%B 0.220 |
| Game Total Kills (After Draft) | 66%121/183+21.0%B 0.228 | 63%120/191+15.2%B 0.233 | 61%113/185+12.3%B 0.241 | 66%111/169+20.3%B 0.227 |
| Player Total Kills (Prelive) | 66%58/88+30.9%B 0.228 | 67%58/86+31.8%B 0.219 | 67%56/84+30.5%B 0.216 | 67%56/84+30.9%B 0.217 |
| Player Total Kills (After Draft) | 67%37/55+33.8%B 0.209 | 69%38/55+39.5%B 0.214 | 71%39/55+41.8%B 0.204 | 67%37/55+32.8%B 0.212 |
By league
Match-winner markets only, series and per-game combined. The other markets are in the table above, where their different sample sizes can be compared directly.
| League | FastTree | LightGBM | PCA Sweep | Consensus | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBLOL | 69%35/51+15.6%B 0.204 | 65%34/52+14.6%B 0.222 | 66%29/44+11.0%B 0.205 | 68%38/56+17.6%B 0.210 | 2026-10-03 |
| LCS | 68%30/44+9.3%B 0.202 | 64%35/55+6.2%B 0.254 | 76%44/58+23.3%B 0.200 | 69%31/45+15.1%B 0.231 | 2026-10-04 |
| EMEA Masters | 44%15/34+41.1%B 0.301 | 42%13/31+21.5%B 0.285 | 32%7/22+3.5%B 0.331 | 41%9/22+43.3%B 0.335 | 2026-10-13 |
| MSI | 48%13/27+60.1%B 0.288 | 52%16/31+69.4%B 0.264 | 53%10/19+32.7%B 0.287 | 48%12/25+66.2%B 0.280 | 2026-07-12 |
| LEC | 63%26/41+5.7%B 0.216 | — | 63%22/35+1.3%B 0.230 | — | 2026-09-12 |
| LES | 71%5/7+11.9%B 0.177 | 71%22/31+18.2%B 0.211 | — | 73%24/33+14.1%B 0.183 | 2026-09-06 |
| LCK | 69%11/16+16.0%B 0.195 | 78%14/18+4.9%B 0.133 | 69%11/16+15.1%B 0.187 | 69%9/13+1.3%B 0.177 | 2026-09-06 |
| CD | 68%21/31+9.0%B 0.227 | 75%9/12+21.0%B 0.173 | 78%7/9+29.3%B 0.179 | 89%8/9+45.3%B 0.150 | 2026-09-08 |
| WSCI | 31%4/13+27.2%B 0.304 | 29%2/7+15.7%B 0.327 | 29%2/7+15.7%B 0.308 | 29%2/7+15.7%B 0.310 | 2026-09-30 |
| TCL | 67%6/9+34.6%B 0.232 | — | 78%7/9+43.0%B 0.210 | 70%7/10+39.6%B 0.228 | 2026-09-03 |
| LFL | 75%9/12+7.3%B 0.160 | 73%11/15+6.2%B 0.204 | — | — | 2026-09-02 |
| LPL | 83%20/24+36.4%B 0.156 | — | — | — | 2026-08-28 |
| NACL | 83%5/6+33.8%B 0.216 | 71%5/7+8.0%B 0.287 | — | — | 2026-08-29 |
| LCP | — | — | — | 67%8/12+7.8%B 0.220 | 2026-08-16 |
| LJL | — | — | 80%4/5+10.4%B 0.151 | 50%2/4+6.3%B 0.291 | 2026-06-03 |
| All leagues | 63%200/315+21.9%B 0.224 | 62%161/259+19.6%B 0.235 | 64%143/224+16.2%B 0.227 | 64%150/236+24.5%B 0.231 | 2026-10-13 |
Figures describe past predictions that were published before their matches began and graded against scraped results. Past performance does not indicate future results. Predictions are generated by machine-learning models and do not guarantee outcomes. For informational purposes only; not financial advice.