LCSWeek 5

Disguised vs Dignitas - LCS

Aug 22, 23:00·Bo3

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Series Predictions
Disguised
Dignitas
FastTree · free model
Uncertain
Disguised47.8% Dignitas52.2%
Head-to-Head & Form
Disguised
Elo Rating 1247
Tournament Record –
Overall Record 26W - 64L (28.9%)
Current Streak 4L
H2H Win Rate 70.8%
VS
Dignitas
Elo Rating 1132
Tournament Record –
Overall Record 18W - 66L (21.4%)
Current Streak 8L
H2H Win Rate 29.2%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
Contrarian call - fading the favorite
No single stat favors Dignitas. Disguised leads nearly every metric below, but the model reads that profile as one that tends to lose here - so it favors Dignitas anyway. The rows below are the Disguised edges the model weighs against, not reasons Dignitas is ahead.
1
Elo CompositeElo CompositeA combined Elo signal that blends raw Elo, expected win rate, and the interaction between them.
Disguised +61
Disguised leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward Dignitas.
Impact 45.5%
Counts for Dignitas The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
2
Win Rate
Disguised +7.5% WR
Impact 8.4%
Disguised
3
Head-to-Head History
Disguised +41.7% WR
Impact 7.2%
Disguised
4
Elo Rating
Disguised +115 Elo
Impact 6.7%
Disguised
5
Recent Win RateRecent Win RateWin rate over the last 5 matches - the most direct measure of current form, faster-reacting than season-long stats.
Disguised +20% WR
Disguised leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward Dignitas.
Impact 4.2%
Counts for Dignitas The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
6
Vision ControlVision ControlA combined vision signal blending vision score, vision wards per minute, and vision efficiency.
Dignitas +277
Dignitas leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward Disguised.
Impact 4%
Counts for Disguised The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
7
Expected Win RateExpected Win RateThe model's expected win probability based on Elo difference alone.
Disguised +16% expected WR
Impact 3.9%
Disguised
8
Objective ControlObjective ControlA combined objective control signal blending dragons, heralds, and barons taken per game.
Disguised +98
Impact 3.6%
Disguised
9
Team StrengthTeam StrengthA combined team strength signal blending overall win rate, KDA, and gold per minute.
Disguised +431
Impact 3.4%
Disguised
10
Combat PowerCombat PowerA combined combat signal blending damage to champions, damage per minute, and teamfight power.
Disguised +340
Impact 2.7%
Disguised
Scouting Report
Disguised BLUE
Higher rated overall
Stronger win record (29%)
Cleaner teamfighting (better KDA)
Higher damage output
Higher first blood rate
Dignitas RED
Stronger early game (gold lead at 15)