Series Edge
Premium
Bo5Patch 16.18Updates after every game
Shopify RebellionBetter draft expected
Premium
Better draft expectedWhich roster is expected to get the better draft on this patch, from pool depth and the current meta. A house read, not any single model's number.
See which side, and whether the market agrees
LYONHighest impact champions this seriesPremium
Highest impact champions this series
The five champions that swing this series most, with who plays them and how it has gone.
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Series Predictions
Shopify RebellionLYON
FastTree
· free model
Shopify Rebellion25.6%
LYON74.4%
Head-to-Head & Form
Shopify RebellionElo Rating
1350
Tournament Record
1-1
(3-5)
Overall Record
42W - 75L (35.9%)
Current Streak
3W
H2H Win Rate
26.9%
VS
LYONElo Rating
1696
Tournament Record
0-1
(1-3)
Overall Record
80W - 63L (55.9%)
Current Streak
2L
H2H Win Rate
73.1%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
1
Elo Rating
LYON +346 Elo
Impact
26.7%
LYON
2
Early GameEarly GameA combined early-game signal blending gold, CS, and XP differentials at the 15-minute mark.
LYON +396
LYON leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward Shopify Rebellion.
Impact
20.2%
Counts for Shopify Rebellion
The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
3
Expected Win RateExpected Win RateThe model's expected win probability based on Elo difference alone.
LYON +38% expected WR
Impact
12.3%
LYON
4
Upset RateUpset RateHow often this team wins as the Elo underdog - captures clutch factor / ability to beat stronger teams.
LYON +12.1%
Impact
10.6%
LYON
5
Team StrengthTeam StrengthA combined team strength signal blending overall win rate, KDA, and gold per minute.
LYON +693
Impact
7.4%
LYON
6
Opponent Avg Elo
Shopify Rebellion +0
Shopify Rebellion leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward LYON.
Impact
4.9%
Counts for LYON
The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
7
Elo CompositeElo CompositeA combined Elo signal that blends raw Elo, expected win rate, and the interaction between them.
LYON +70
Impact
4.6%
LYON
8
Win Streak
Shopify Rebellion +5 games
Impact
4.2%
Shopify Rebellion
9
Vision ControlVision ControlA combined vision signal blending vision score, vision wards per minute, and vision efficiency.
LYON +139
Impact
2.3%
LYON
10
Head-to-Head History
LYON +46.3% WR
Impact
1.7%
LYON
Scouting Report
Shopify Rebellion
BLUE
Well-rounded profile
LYON
RED
Higher rated overall
Stronger win record (56%)
Cleaner teamfighting (better KDA)
Better gold generation
Higher damage output