Series Edge
Premium
Bo5Patch 16.17Updates after every game
RED KalungaBetter draft expected
Premium
Better draft expectedWhich roster is expected to get the better draft on this patch, from pool depth and the current meta. A house read, not any single model's number.
See which side, and whether the market agrees
paiN GamingHighest impact champions this seriesPremium
Highest impact champions this series
The five champions that swing this series most, with who plays them and how it has gone.
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Series Predictions
RED KalungapaiN Gaming
FastTree
· free model
RED Kalunga61.0%
paiN Gaming39.0%
Head-to-Head & Form
RED CanidsElo Rating
1472
Tournament Record
2-1
(6-4)
Overall Record
79W - 72L (52.3%)
Current Streak
3W
H2H Win Rate
71.5%
VS
paiN GamingElo Rating
1417
Tournament Record
1-2
(5-7)
Overall Record
55W - 72L (43.3%)
Current Streak
3L
H2H Win Rate
28.5%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
1
Recent Win RateRecent Win RateWin rate over the last 5 matches - the most direct measure of current form, faster-reacting than season-long stats.
RED Canids +60% WR
RED Canids leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward paiN Gaming.
Impact
25.9%
Counts for paiN Gaming
The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
2
Combat PowerCombat PowerA combined combat signal blending damage to champions, damage per minute, and teamfight power.
paiN Gaming +58
Impact
13.1%
paiN Gaming
3
Win Rate
RED Canids +9% WR
Impact
12%
RED Canids
4
Elo Rating
RED Canids +83 Elo
Impact
8%
RED Canids
5
Early GameEarly GameA combined early-game signal blending gold, CS, and XP differentials at the 15-minute mark.
RED Canids +128
Impact
6.6%
RED Canids
6
Head-to-Head History
RED Canids +43% WR
Impact
5%
RED Canids
7
Upset RateUpset RateHow often this team wins as the Elo underdog - captures clutch factor / ability to beat stronger teams.
RED Canids +1.9%
Impact
4.4%
RED Canids
8
Expected Win RateExpected Win RateThe model's expected win probability based on Elo difference alone.
RED Canids +11.8% expected WR
Impact
3.9%
RED Canids
9
Team StrengthTeam StrengthA combined team strength signal blending overall win rate, KDA, and gold per minute.
paiN Gaming +15
paiN Gaming leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward RED Canids.
Impact
3.6%
Counts for RED Canids
The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
10
Schedule StrengthSchedule StrengthThe average Elo of opponents this team has faced. A 60% win rate against strong opponents is more impressive than against weak ones.
paiN Gaming +0.012
paiN Gaming leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward RED Canids.
Impact
3.6%
Counts for RED Canids
The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
Scouting Report
RED Canids
BLUE
Higher rated overall
Stronger win record (52%)
Better vision control
Higher first blood rate
paiN Gaming
RED
Cleaner teamfighting (better KDA)
Stronger first tower pressure