NACLWeek 5

Conviction vs CCG Esports - NACL

Conviction Conviction1-2
VS
CCG Esports CCG Esports
Aug 13, 00:00·Bo3

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Series Predictions
Conviction
CCG Esports
FastTree · free model
Conviction75.0% CCG Esports25.0%
Head-to-Head & Form
Conviction
Elo Rating 1432
Tournament Record 1-2 (5-5)
Overall Record 65W - 49L (57%)
Current Streak 1L
H2H Win Rate 65.4%
VS
CCG Esports
Elo Rating 1361
Tournament Record –
Overall Record 44W - 43L (50.6%)
Current Streak 1L
H2H Win Rate 34.6%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
1
Elo CompositeElo CompositeA combined Elo signal that blends raw Elo, expected win rate, and the interaction between them.
Conviction +55
Conviction leads this stat - but weighed with the rest of this matchup, it shifts the model toward CCG Esports.
Impact 25%
Counts for CCG Esports The model weighs every driver together rather than one at a time. A team can lead a single stat here and still see the full matchup point the other way - this row is being outweighed by the rest of the picture, not ignored.
2
Win Rate
Conviction +6.4% WR
Impact 13.2%
Conviction
3
Elo Rating
Conviction +106 Elo
Impact 11.3%
Conviction
4
Vision ControlVision ControlA combined vision signal blending vision score, vision wards per minute, and vision efficiency.
Conviction +87
Impact 9.3%
Conviction
5
Head-to-Head History
Conviction +30.9% WR
Impact 6.4%
Conviction
6
Team StrengthTeam StrengthA combined team strength signal blending overall win rate, KDA, and gold per minute.
Conviction +128
Impact 6.3%
Conviction
7
Expected Win RateExpected Win RateThe model's expected win probability based on Elo difference alone.
Conviction +14.8% expected WR
Impact 5.8%
Conviction
8
Opponent Avg Elo
Conviction +0.058
Impact 5.3%
Conviction
9
Objective ControlObjective ControlA combined objective control signal blending dragons, heralds, and barons taken per game.
Conviction +197
Impact 4.8%
Conviction
10
Early GameEarly GameA combined early-game signal blending gold, CS, and XP differentials at the 15-minute mark.
Conviction +332
Impact 4.7%
Conviction
Scouting Report
Conviction BLUE
Higher rated overall
Stronger win record (57%)
Stronger early game (gold lead at 15)
Stronger first tower pressure
Better dragon control
CCG Esports RED
Well-rounded profile