NACLWeek 2

Conviction vs Winthrop University - NACL

Conviction Conviction1-2
VS
2-2Winthrop University Winthrop University
Jul 24, 00:00·Bo3

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Series Predictions
Conviction
Winthrop University
FastTree · free model
Conviction84.3% Winthrop University15.7%
Head-to-Head & Form
Conviction
Elo Rating 1432
Tournament Record 1-2 (5-5)
Overall Record 65W - 49L (57%)
Current Streak 1L
H2H Win Rate 35.3%
VS
Winthrop University
Elo Rating 1432
Tournament Record 2-2 (7-7)
Overall Record 53W - 62L (46.1%)
Current Streak 2L
H2H Win Rate 64.7%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
1
Win Rate
Conviction +10.9% WR
Impact 48%
Conviction
2
Recent Win RateRecent Win RateWin rate over the last 5 matches - the most direct measure of current form, faster-reacting than season-long stats.
Conviction +0% WR
Impact 17.9%
Conviction
3
Early GameEarly GameA combined early-game signal blending gold, CS, and XP differentials at the 15-minute mark.
Conviction +437
Impact 11.8%
Conviction
4
Head-to-Head History
Winthrop University +29.5% WR
Impact 4.7%
Winthrop University
5
Objective ControlObjective ControlA combined objective control signal blending dragons, heralds, and barons taken per game.
Conviction +124
Impact 4.2%
Conviction
6
Elo Rating
Winthrop University +1 Elo
Impact 3.3%
Winthrop University
7
H2HWin Rate Weighted
Winthrop University +20.6% WR
Impact 2.3%
Winthrop University
8
Win Streak
Conviction +1 games
Impact 2.2%
Conviction
9
Expected Win RateExpected Win RateThe model's expected win probability based on Elo difference alone.
Winthrop University +0.1% expected WR
Impact 2%
Winthrop University
10
Elo CompositeElo CompositeA combined Elo signal that blends raw Elo, expected win rate, and the interaction between them.
Winthrop University +0
Impact 1.5%
Winthrop University
Scouting Report
Conviction BLUE
Stronger win record (57%)
Cleaner teamfighting (better KDA)
Stronger early game (gold lead at 15)
Winthrop University RED
Well-rounded profile