NACL
Maryville University0-2
VS
May 20, 23:00
Bo3
Conviction3-0
Series Predictions
Maryville University
Conviction
FastTreeBest in NACLBest for confidence
81.1%
18.9%
LightGBM
Premium
PCA Sweep
Premium
FastTree Best in NACLBest for confidence
Series Prediction Accuracy for NACL 40% 2/5! Below 65% accuracy in NACL (sample of 5). This model has been less reliable than usual in this league — weight its call accordingly.
Accuracy for confidence level Accuracy for confidence levelHow accurate this model has been across ALL leagues when it predicts with this level of confidence. Thresholds: 55%+, 60%+, 70%+, 80%+. This is not league-specific. 82% 121/147
Market · Series prelive
Maryville University 1.40 · Conviction 2.75
Maryville University Conviction
Market Odds 1.40 2.75
FastTree Sign in to see
LightGBM Premium
PCA Sweep Premium
Consensus ConsensusConsensus = unweighted average of FastTree, LightGBM, and PCA Sweep (each already calibrated and weighted). Premium
Head-to-Head & Form
Maryville University
Elo Rating 1540
Tournament Record 0-2 (3-5)
Overall Record 19W - 10L (65.5%)
Current Streak 2L
H2H Win Rate 49.0%
VS
Conviction
Elo Rating 1594
Tournament Record 3-0 (7-2)
Overall Record 52W - 35L (59.8%)
Current Streak 4W
H2H Win Rate 51.0%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
1
Early Game Early GameA combined early-game signal blending gold, CS, and XP differentials at the 15-minute mark.
+997
Impact 46.4% Maryville University
2
Elo Composite Elo CompositeA combined Elo signal that blends raw Elo, expected win rate, and the interaction between them.
+42
Impact 15.8% Conviction
3
Elo Rating
+81 Elo
Impact 8.2% Conviction
4
Expected Win Rate Expected Win RateThe model's expected win probability based on Elo difference alone.
+11.4% expected WR
Impact 7.7% Conviction
5
Vision Control Vision ControlA combined vision signal blending vision score, vision wards per minute, and vision efficiency.
+237
Impact 5% Maryville University
6
Combat Power Combat PowerA combined combat signal blending damage to champions, damage per minute, and teamfight power.
+90
Impact 3.7% Maryville University
7
Head-to-Head History
+2% WR
Impact 3.6% Conviction
8
Win Streak
+6 games
Impact 3.2% Conviction
9
Objective Control Objective ControlA combined objective control signal blending dragons, heralds, and barons taken per game.
+124
Impact 3% Maryville University
10
Win Rate
+5.7% WR
Impact 1.7% Maryville University
Scouting Report
Maryville University BLUE
Stronger win record (66%)
Better gold generation
Better vision control
Stronger early game (gold lead at 15)
Stronger first tower pressure
Conviction RED
Higher rated overall