NACL
Supernova0-2
VS
May 27, 20:00
Bo3
Winthrop University3-1
Series Predictions
Supernova
Winthrop University
FastTreeBest in NACLBest for confidence
56.0%
44.0%
LightGBM
Premium
PCA Sweep
Premium
FastTree Best in NACLBest for confidence
Series Prediction Accuracy for NACL 40% 2/5! Below 65% accuracy in NACL (sample of 5). This model has been less reliable than usual in this league — weight its call accordingly.
Accuracy for confidence level Accuracy for confidence levelHow accurate this model has been across ALL leagues when it predicts with this level of confidence. Thresholds: 55%+, 60%+, 70%+, 80%+. This is not league-specific. 69% 213/309
Market · Series prelive
Supernova 1.57 · Winthrop University 2.25
Supernova Winthrop University
Market Odds 1.57 2.25
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LightGBM Premium
PCA Sweep Premium
Consensus ConsensusConsensus = unweighted average of FastTree, LightGBM, and PCA Sweep (each already calibrated and weighted). Premium
Head-to-Head & Form
Supernova
Elo Rating 1521
Tournament Record 0-2 (3-5)
Overall Record 37W - 38L (49.3%)
Current Streak 1L
H2H Win Rate 53.4%
VS
Winthrop University
Elo Rating 1555
Tournament Record 3-1 (10-8)
Overall Record 37W - 46L (44.6%)
Current Streak 2W
H2H Win Rate 46.6%
Main Prediction Drivers
Impact = how much this feature shifts the model's win probability. The value below each name is how much better the favored team is on that feature.
1
Vision Control Vision ControlA combined vision signal blending vision score, vision wards per minute, and vision efficiency.
+337
Impact 50.4% Winthrop University
2
Early Game Early GameA combined early-game signal blending gold, CS, and XP differentials at the 15-minute mark.
+476
Impact 20.8% Supernova
3
Combat Power Combat PowerA combined combat signal blending damage to champions, damage per minute, and teamfight power.
+336
Impact 18.6% Winthrop University
4
Win Streak
+3 games
Impact 2.9% Winthrop University
5
Win Rate
+4.8% WR
Impact 1.9% Supernova
6
Team Strength Team StrengthA combined team strength signal blending overall win rate, KDA, and gold per minute.
+123
Impact 1.6% Supernova
7
Head-to-Head History
+6.8% WR
Impact 1.2% Supernova
Scouting Report
Supernova BLUE
Stronger early game (gold lead at 15)
Stronger first tower pressure
Winthrop University RED
Higher rated overall
Higher damage output