Friday, Sep 11

TCL BO5 14:30
FastTree · free modelLeanUpdated 3h ago
PCF56.4% BW43.6%
market 1.53 · fair 1.77 fair 2.29 · market 2.37
Model agreement Unlock all four
50/50FastTree · 56.4% PCF
Form 4–1 4–1 last five series
Gold 15 min +0.8k +0.4k season average
Head to head 3 1 2–1 in the last series
Consensus, LightGBM & PCA Sweep are Premium models Upgrade to Premium
ModelSeries winner Accuracy At this confidenceTCL ROI ROI on +EV picks
FastTree
56.4 43.6
75%15/20
67%674/1009 Claims 56.4% here · was right 67% of the time at this confidence (674/1009)
−3.6%15/20 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.15/20 picks
+5.5%4/6 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.4/6 picks
LightGBMBest for confidence
Premium
84%16/19
70%599/850
−2.8%15/21 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.15/21 picks
+17.6%8/11 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.8/11 picks
PCA SweepBest ROI in TCLBest accuracy in TCL
Premium
95%18/19
68%616/902
+26.4%18/21 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.18/21 picks
+57.4%7/9 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.7/9 picks
ConsensusBest +EV in TCL
Premium
89%16/18
68%667/978
+17.5%17/20 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.17/20 picks
+58.2%5/6 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.5/6 picks
Accuracy and ROI are each model's record on past TCL matches on this market.
Best price market line PCF1.53 BW2.37
Chance the market gives from the price, margin removed PCF60.8% BW39.2%
Chance the models give FastTree only PCF56.4% BW43.6%
Model Fair PCF Edge @1.53 Fair BW Edge @2.37
FastTree1.77 −13.8% 2.29 +3.4%
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PCA Sweep Premium
Consensus Premium
See every model's call on these matches LightGBM, PCA Sweep and Consensus predictions, value picks and premium markets.
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