Sunday, Sep 13

LPL BO5 09:00 Bracket
FastTree · free modelHigh confidenceUpdated 2h ago
AL16.4% BLG83.6%
market 5.00 · fair 6.12 fair 1.20 · market 1.14
Model agreement Unlock all four
50/50FastTree · 83.6% BLG
Form 2–3 5–0 last five series
Gold 15 min −0.4k +0.9k season average
Head to head 6 9 0–3 in the last series
Consensus, LightGBM & PCA Sweep are Premium models Upgrade to Premium
ModelSeries winner Accuracy At this confidenceLPL ROI ROI on +EV picks
FastTreeBest +EV in LPLBest ROI in LPLBest accuracy in LPL
16.4 83.6
69%82/118
80%264/332 Claims 83.6% here · was right 80% of the time at this confidence (264/332)
−1.6%63/87 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.63/87 picks
+36.4%20/24 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.20/24 picks
LightGBM
Premium
65%79/121
80%267/335
−17.4%57/90 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.57/90 picks
−20.3%17/33 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.17/33 picks
PCA Sweep
Premium
65%81/124
77%303/391
−17.1%57/88 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.57/88 picks
−17.2%18/31 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.18/31 picks
ConsensusBest for confidence
Premium
65%79/121
80%273/340
−10.5%58/85 ?Return from a flat stake on every settled pick this model made on this market in this league, priced at closing market odds.58/85 picks
−2.0%15/24 ?Same flat-stake return in this league, counting only positive-EV picks - where the model's fair price beat the market line at close.15/24 picks
Accuracy and ROI are each model's record on past LPL matches on this market.
Best price market line AL5.00 BLG1.14
Chance the market gives from the price, margin removed AL18.6% BLG81.4%
Chance the models give FastTree only AL16.4% BLG83.6%
Model Fair AL Edge @5.00 Fair BLG Edge @1.14
FastTree6.12 −18.2% 1.20 −4.6%
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